[SMM Chromium Weekly Review] Inquiries Enthusiasm Released, Prices Steadily Adjusted Upward

On September 5, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,350-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price was 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 7,900-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,900-9,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM.

This week, the ferrochrome market rose significantly. The digestion of the steel mill tender price increase sentiment was completed. With optimistic expectations for the peak consumption season, ferrochrome producers showed high production enthusiasm. Supported by robust supply and demand as well as cost factors, ferrochrome prices remained strong and stable. On the supply-demand front, a high-carbon ferrochrome producer in Inner Mongolia recently resumed production of a 33,000 KVA submerged arc furnace, which is expected to affect monthly production by 6,000 mt. Currently, with ferrochrome prices fluctuating at highs and producer profit margins expanding, many have plans to continuously increase production or resume operations. Additionally, overseas ferrochrome production cuts have stimulated domestic producers to actively expand production and explore markets, leading to steady growth in ferrochrome supply. However, as the September-October peak season approaches, the downstream stainless steel market has recovered, with high planned production supporting demand for ferrochrome. Moreover, steel mills' raw material inventories are relatively tight, and restocking demand is gradually being released, driving strong sales enthusiasm and pushing ferrochrome prices higher. Meanwhile, spot ferrochrome supply is noticeably tight, with most domestic producers' orders booked until late September to October. Currently, retail tradable volumes are extremely limited, and producers' reluctance to budge on prices has become prominent, leading to steady upward adjustments in ferrochrome prices. Cost-wise, this week, the immediate smelting cost of ferrochrome rose slightly. The eighth round of coke price increases was blocked, temporarily stabilizing coke costs. Chrome ore futures rose by $2, and spot prices increased by 0.5 yuan/mtu, raising ore costs by approximately 100 yuan. Ferrochrome production costs remained in the range of 7,900-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content). The ferrochrome market is expected to remain stable with a positive outlook in the short term.

On the raw material front, on September 5, 2025, spot 40-42% South African concentrate at Tianjin Port was quoted at 56-57.5 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore at 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate at 58-59 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate at 59-62 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore at 60-61 yuan/mtu; and 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate at 64-65 yuan/mtu, flat MoM. In the futures market, 40-42% South African concentrate was offered at $275-278/mt, and 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate at $345-355/mt, up $5/mt MoM.

This week, the chrome ore market showed signs of recovery. Transportation restrictions at Tianjin Port were gradually lifted, easing the tight logistics situation and reducing chrome ore freight rates. Inquiry enthusiasm increased, and ferrochrome producers began purchasing chrome ore according to their production schedules, with cargo pick-up planned after the key period, boosting market activity. Considering the further increase in ferrochrome production in September, coupled with production resumptions and expansions at some plants, chrome ore demand found support. Traders generally held optimistic short-term expectations, with a pronounced upward testing mentality. Recently, there has been significant circulation of 44-46% low-grade Zimbabwean fines, which offer insufficient cost-performance for high-carbon ferrochrome due to limited supply and fail to meet the standards for low- and micro-carbon ferrochrome production, resulting in difficult sales. However, high-grade Zimbabwean fines saw transactions amid rising prices for low- and micro-carbon ferrochrome. Futures side, overseas market quotations maintained a gradual upward trend with limited price increases. This was largely constrained by high chrome ore shipment volumes and supply, while overseas ferrochrome production cuts boosted chrome ore exports. The subsequent supply surplus is expected to somewhat curb ore price rises, with significant long-term uncertainty prompting cautious purchasing by traders. Port inventory side, total chrome ore port stocks stood at 2.797 million mt this week, down 4.15% WoW. Tianjin Port’s chrome ore inventory totaled 2.1803 million mt, declining 4.12% WoW. Transport restrictions on chrome ore suppressed outflows from warehouses, while port arrivals decreased and inbound volumes dropped, leading to a slight overall reduction in chrome ore inventory. The chrome ore market is expected to operate steadily with a positive bias in the short term.